• Bitcoin (BTC) is currently trading within the $65.2K range.
• Neither buyers nor sellers drive a strong directional move. 

The largest and dominant asset, Bitcoin (BTC), is currently hovering within the $65,276 range. Also, the 24-hour trading volume is settled at $23.37 billion, down by 15%. That drop in volume during a rejection hints that conviction on the buy side is thinning out. 

The .618 Fibonacci retracement level on the higher timeframes is stalling the downtrend and creating a reaction zone. BTC’s downtrend has not reversed, but it has paused. That pause at a significant Fibonacci level is combined with other confluence indicators. 

Where Will the Bitcoin Price Go From Here? 

The short-term path of the asset points toward $64K as the next crucial support zone. That is the level that determines what happens next: either the Bitcoin price bounces from $64K and retests the highs, or it breaks through and opens the door to $61K, the major support below.

In addition, the $65.7K–$67K zone has been one of the most talked-about resistance confluences in the current range. Moreover, the multiple resistance layers stacked on top of each other in that zone made it difficult for the BTC price to likely push through cleanly. 

Is Bitcoin’s Technical Setup Lining Up for a Breakout or a Breakdown?

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence line is below the signal line, and the short-term momentum is slowing down. This setup shows a bullish trend that is currently undergoing a pullback. As both lines are above zero, the overall market direction is still bullish. 

Traders wait for the MACD line to cross back up the signal line. If the lines keep falling below the zero line, it confirms that the broader uptrend of Bitcoin has broken down into a bearish trend. 

Furthermore, the daily Relative Strength Index (RSI) value is found at 48.34, indicating a neutral market with a slightly bearish tilt. The 50 level is the midpoint between bullish and bearish momentum. Neither the buyers nor the sellers are driving a strong directional move.  

The asset is neither overbought (70) nor oversold (30). This is a consolidation or range-bound phase. A clean cross back above 50 is a bullish sign, or a drop toward 30 to spot potential oversold conditions. 

Crypto Market Highlights

Ethena (ENA) Flashes Strong Bullish Signals: Can It Climb Toward $0.13?

The post Bitcoin (BTC) Faces a Critical Test: Will Rejection at Resistance Push the Price Back to $64K? appeared first on Risk Front Digest.

• Bitcoin reclaimed the high-timeframe range at $66K.
• BTC repeats the setup seen before the 2015, 2019, and 2022 rallies.

As of July 21, the Bitcoin (BTC) price is trading at $66,286, breaking above and reclaiming the high-timeframe support range at $66K. It was a level the market has been watching for weeks. Moreover, last month, the largest asset corrected to $58,000 and triggered a precise technical trifecta that has historically marked major cycle bottoms. 

Monthly RSI dropped below 43.65. The Chande Momentum Oscillator dropped to -71. Also, Bitcoin tested its 50-month moving average, the same three-signal cluster that appeared at $235 in March 2015, at $3,333 in January 2019, and at $16,270 in December 2022. What followed was an 8,300% expansion, a 1,911% rally, and a 675% surge.

The current pattern is echoing the 2022 descending channel, where price sold off for months before bottoming in a compression zone and breaking out. The structure is repeating, and BTC is now on the right side of that break.

On-chain metrics like MVRV and CVDD suggest a potential cycle bottom between $40K and $50K; a sweep of lower levels before continuation remains possible. Technically, the dominant signal points to accumulation. The risk-to-reward at current levels heavily favours spot BTC buyers over short sellers.

The Bitcoin Levels That Could Decide the Next Move

With BTC reclaiming $66K, the immediate level to watch is $66,700, the Structural Midline, a key on-chain level from the Structural Market Bands that has consistently acted as a reliable reaction area. Bears will likely try to regain control around this zone.

Beyond that, $67K would be the next test, followed by the $70K–$72K range, a level that could confirm the broader breakout is holding. Buying strength is increasing at support, and the selling pressure is weakening at higher levels, and the market is confirming a reliable technical signal.

Significantly, a confirmed hold above $66.7K might open the path to the $70K mark. Conversely, a rejection sends the Bitcoin price back to take a retest at around $64K–$65K before the next attempt. 

Will the Bullish Setup Continue to Strengthen?

The technical setup is strongly bullish, with the MACD line settled above the signal line. Short-term momentum is accelerating upside, and the buyers are in control. As both lines are above zero, the broader trend of BTC is firmly upward. The short-term moving average sits above the longer-term. 

Bitcoin’s RSI value at 66.93 indicates strong bullish momentum. The demand is consistently pushing the price higher, but it has not hit the extreme overbought level yet. There is more room left before hitting the 70 line. Notably, the upward momentum is solid, a favourable trend for holders. 

Crypto Market Highlights

Ethereum (ETH) Holds the Critical $1,850 Trendline: Is $2.3K the Next Target?

The post Bitcoin (BTC) Repeats the Technical Signal That Preceded Three Major Bull Runs appeared first on Risk Front Digest.

• Bitcoin price is holding near $63.2K.
• BTC is testing the $64K resistance.

The largest asset, Bitcoin (BTC), is knocking on the door of the $64K resistance level again, but it’s stuck in a waiting game. Because the price is sitting right below its 50-day moving average, $65.8K, the market is essentially moving sideways. 

The real trigger is tomorrow’s FOMC minutes. Traders are glued to this economic update, as any hints on interest rates could easily make waves in the market and break Bitcoin out of this tight box.

If buyers can push through and close a daily candle above $64K, it proves they have the strength to fight back toward that $65.8K line. On the flip side, if the news turns sour and sellers take control, the $60.7K level is the line in the sand. Losing that support could trigger a wider market sell-off, while holding it keeps the current recovery alive.

Significantly, BTC is currently trading at the $63,200 mark. With the brief bullish sentiment, the key resistance would be at around $63,361. A stronger push above $63.5K might invite the potent bulls to take charge, breaking it to higher targets. On the other hand, Bitcoin’s fall could aim for the support at $63,122. More downside wakes the potent bears to trigger the price retrace below $62.9K. If this range holds, further losses can be avoided. 

What is Bitcoin’s Technical Setup Conveying? 

The four-hour trading chart of Bitcoin shows that the Moving Average Convergence Divergence line and the signal line are above the zero line. It is in a long-term bullish trend. However, because the MACD line has crossed below the signal line, indicating that the short-term uptrend is slowing down.

The market is currently experiencing a temporary pullback or consolidation. Traders often view this as a potential time to lock in profits or wait for a stabilization before buying back in.

Furthermore, the daily Relative Strength Index (RSI) is resting at 54.89, placing BTC in a neutral-to-slightly bullish territory. It is sitting comfortably away from being overbought or oversold. As it is above the 50 mark, the buyers are currently having an edge, but neither the bulls nor the bears are in full control. 

Also, the market is either consolidating, moving sideways, or quietly catching its breath before making its next major move.

Crypto Market Highlights

MUBARAK Defies the Norm: 116% Volume Surge Sparks a Major Shift on the Charts

The post Bitcoin (BTC) Tests a Critical Zone: Will Buyers Target $64K or Lose Ground to $60K? appeared first on Risk Front Digest.

• Bitcoin price is holding near $61K.
• The downtrend is taking over the macro trend.

Bitcoin is holding onto its bullish divergence despite a recent minor market correction, signalling that the broader upward trend is likely to continue. While there is a simultaneous potential for a bearish divergence to emerge, which forms part of a market reversal, the existing bullish structure remains valid and active.

Currently, the largest asset is trading within the $61,930 range, following a minor 1.24% loss in value. Despite this slight dip, the immediate market impact is a state of cautious consolidation rather than panic selling. Notably, the key line in the sand for buyers is $61,000. 

As long as Bitcoin maintains its footing above this critical baseline, the upward momentum remains intact, keeping the doors wide open for the market to test higher price targets. Also, traders are treating this zone as a foundational support level to preserve the macro recovery.

The asset’s lowest and highest trading ranges are observed between $61,492 and $62,885, respectively. Consequently, the daily trading volume has decreased by 17.04%, reaching the $26.06 billion mark. The market has experienced a 24-hour liquidation of $72.66 million worth of Bitcoin. 

Will Bitcoin Fall into Deeper Lows or Rebound?

Upon the red candles on the chart light up bright, the price might retrace to a crucial support range at $$61,812. Assuming the sellers continue to rule the Bitcoin market, it would apply additional pressure on the downside, triggering the death cross to emerge, leading to a slip below  $61.7K. 

On the other hand, if the current market trend takes a bullish turn, the Bitcoin price could rise to find the key resistance level at around $62K. With the upside pressure gaining more traction, the bulls could initiate the golden cross to take place and would climb high to retest the $62,199 zone. 

Bitcoin’s market is in a state of transition and conflict, where the long-term trend has turned bearish. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) line is below zero, and the faster moving averages have crossed negative, signalling that downward momentum is taking over the macro trend. 

Also, the signal line above zero smoothed the average of the MACD; it lags and is still clinging to the old bullish territory. This is a bearish setup. It shows that a recent, aggressive price drop has broken the back of the previous uptrend. Momentum has officially shifted to the sellers.

Furthermore, the daily Relative Strength Index (RSI) resting at 48.95 hints that the BTC market is in a neutral position, leaning micro-bearish. The 50 mark is the absolute centre of the scale, and now it is trading sideways, with the bears having an unnoticeable edge. 

There is no clear trend here. The asset is neither overbought nor oversold, and the market is in equilibrium, consolidating, and waiting for a volume spike or a catalyst to force a definitive breakout or breakdown.

Crypto Market Highlights

Solana (SOL) Hits a Key Decision Zone: Can Buyers Reverse the 5% Slide?

The post Bitcoin (BTC) Enters a Critical Zone: Will Buyers Fuel a Breakout or Surrender $60K? appeared first on Risk Front Digest.

The Kospi Index retreated by over 4% today, July 20, as concerns on the technology sector coincided with the ongoing US-Iran war. It slumped to 6,525 points, down substantially from the year-to-date high of 9,387. Still, despite this weakness, Barclays and UBS analysts believe that top semiconductor stocks have an upside.

Barclays and UBS are bullish on semiconductor stocks

The main reason why the Kospi Index has slumped is that its two biggest constituents are in the red. Samsung Electronics stock has slumped by 34% from its highest point this year and is hovering at its lowest level since May 6 this year.

SK Hynix, the second-biggest South Korean company, has dived by 40% from its peak this year. This crash has coincided with that of other memory and semiconductor companies in other places. In Japan, Kioxia has been in a strong freefall that has erased billions of dollars in value.

Top ETFs have also plunged in this period. The Roundhill Memory ETF (DRAM) dropped from a record high of $81 to $52, while other popular funds like SMH and SOXX have continued their freefall. 

Still, despite all this, analysts at key banks like UBS and Barclays believes that semiconductor companies have more room to go. They cited the strong demand in the industry and the fact that most of their products are sold out for the year. In a note, a Barclays analyst wrote that:

“Demand for compute continues to exceed available supply, while capacity constraints along the supply chain are unlikely to ease quickly.”

In a separate note, a UBS analyst said:

“The selling is more passive and not aggressive and it seems more like trimming of positions rather than investors trying to leave the space.”

Semiconductor companies are now bracing themselves for the upcoming big-tech earnings, which will provide more color on capital expenditures. A sign that big-tech companies are still willing to spend will be bullish for Samsung and SK Hynix, which account for more than half of the Kospi Index.

US-Iran war raising volatility

The Kospi Index is also reacting to the ongoing tensions in the Middle East, which escalated during the weekend. As a result, crude oil prices jumped on Monday, with Brent topping $90 for the first time in over a month.

The US continued its strike against Iran overnight as Trump seeks to bring Iranian leaders back to the negotiating table. Iran, on the other hand, has launched substantial attacks in the region, killing and injuring US forces.

Trump has threatened that the US will attack Iranian power plants and bridges this week. Iran has threatened to hit similar infrastructure in the region as well.

South Korea is impacted by these events because of the impact on the energy market. Soaring oil prices will fuel inflation in the country and push the central bank to hike interest rates again.

Kospi Index technical analysis

Kospi Index chart | Source: TradingView

The daily chart shows that the Kospi Index continued its strong downward trend on Monday. It has now slipped below the 38.2% Fibonacci Retracement level.

Kospi has also fallen below the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), while the Average Directional Index has risen to 24. That is a sign that the downward trend is gaining momentum.

Therefore, the index will likely continue falling in the near term, potentially to the psychological level of 5,000. This target also coincides with the 61.8% retracement level.

The post Kospi Index slides as Samsung, SK Hynix sink; Barclays stays bullish on semis appeared first on Invezz

The post Kospi Index slides as Samsung, SK Hynix sink; Barclays stays bullish on semis appeared first on Risk Front Digest.

The Hang Seng Index jumped more than 2% on Monday, making it the best-performing major benchmark in Asia as investors bet on fresh Chinese stimulus following a string of weak economic data. The index climbed to 25,103, its highest level since June 5.

Hang Seng Index jumps on stimulus hopes

Hong Kong stocks continued rising, even as other Asian benchmarks like Kospi and Nikkei 225dived.

The surge is driven by the rising hope that Beijing officials will provide stimulus after last week’s weak macro data.

According to the FT, officials are expected to focus on speeding bond issuance at the next Politburo meeting.

The urgency of this stimulus jumped after a report showed that the economy expanded by just 4.3% in the second quarter because of the impact of the US-Iran war. 

Earlier this year, Chinese officials placed an annual growth target of between 4.5% and 5%, the lowest in decades.

As such, by the second quarter growth coming in at 4.3%, it means that the economy may not hit that subdued target. In a note, a Goldman Sachs analyst said:

“For policymakers, the worry is that if the deceleration continues, then your target for the full year is at risk.”

While Chinese exports are booming, weak household confidence has undermined domestic demand. Indeed, data showed that retail sales and house prices were highly subdued.

It is common for the Hang Seng and the Shanghai Composite to do well whenever there is hope that Beijing will implement a large stimulus package. 

Alibaba stock jumps amid China AI growth

One area where Beijing is investing substantial resources is in the artificial intelligence (AI) industry.

In a speech last week, Xi Jinping said that China would continue to invest in the industry. He also launched a new AI Alliance made up of 29 nations.

The country has made some major progress in the recent past, with Moonshot’s Kimi K3 model beating those made by American companies like Anthropic and OpenAI. Moonshot is now aiming to launch its IPO in Hong Kong soon.

Other Chinese companies like MiniMax and DeepSeek have continued to thrive in the past few months.

Alibaba stock was the best gainer in the Hang Seng today because of its AI progress in the AI sector. It soared after the launch of Qwen 3.8 Max and after inking a deal to add this model to Apple phones. 

The other top gainers in the Hang Seng Index today were CNOOC, Semiconductor Manufacturing International (SMIC), Aluminum Corporation of China (Chalco), and Laopu Gold.

HSI Index technical analysis

Hang Seng Index chart | Source: TradingView

The daily chart shows that the Hang Seng Index has rebounded in the past few weeks. It has soared from a low of 22,504 in June to the current 25,098.

The index has recently soared above key resistance levels, including 24,185 (March low) and the psychological level of 25,000.

After underperforming key indices like the Kospi and Nikkei earlier this year, there is a likelihood that it will continue rising in the near term. If this happens, the index may soar to 26,000.

The post Hang Seng Index jumps on China stimulus hopes as Alibaba stock soars appeared first on Invezz

The post Hang Seng Index jumps on China stimulus hopes as Alibaba stock soars appeared first on Risk Front Digest.

• Bitcoin price is trading near the $62.8K zone.
• BTC’s macro trend is strong and remains firmly in bullish territory.

The chart shows that the Bitcoin dominance peaked in early 2025 and has been quietly losing ground. Right now, it sits at 58.23%, and an analyst thinks it’s heading to sub-55%. The reasoning is straightforward. Since the breakdown last summer, the dominance has printed a clear lower high. Each attempt to reclaim that level has failed. That’s not consolidation, it’s trend flip.

With the Clarity closing in and Ethereum showing noticeably stronger price action than Bitcoin, capital is beginning to rotate. When regulation gives altcoins a cleaner runway, dominance tends to fall fast.

The last BTC bull cycle was shallow by historical standards; it didn’t extend the way previous cycles did. Most traders built their entire playbook around that cycle. This time around, those same traders are likely to sell too early, missing the real move.

$500,000 BTC is not off the table this cycle. If dominance drops to sub-55%, that’s not bearish for Bitcoin; it infers that the whole market is running, with the asset still leading from the front. It expects altcoin strength to build as dominance fades, with Bitcoin potentially making its biggest move when traders least expect it.

Significantly, the BTC price has undergone multiple tests and faced rejections. All the major recovery attempts are landing at the weak zone itself. At press time, the largest asset trades within the $62,801 mark, after a modest 2.09% loss in value. Besides, the Bitcoin market has experienced a liquidation of $72.91 million.

Bitcoin Eyes Its Next Target: Uptrend or Pullback?

The technical analysis indicates a bullish trend experiencing a short-term pullback. Both Moving Average Convergence Divergence and signal lines are above the zero line, which shows that the macro trend is structurally strong and remains firmly in bullish territory. 

But with the MACD below the signal line, the immediate, short-term buying momentum is slowing down. This is a bullish consolidation, and the Bitcoin market is cooling off within an active uptrend.

Moreover, the daily Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 40.85 suggests that the market is in a mildly bearish, defensive position. Sellers have the edge because it is sitting below the neutral line. While the trend is negative, BTC is not oversold. 

Also, there is no sign of panic selling or absolute market exhaustion; rather, the price is slowly grinding lower or consolidating with a downward bias. This is a weak, and the asset is vulnerable to further downside unless a surge of buying volume arrives to reclaim the 50 line. 

The 4-hour trading window of BTC exhibits that if the bearish momentum strengthens, the price could slip to the $62,719 support. With the downtrend gaining more traction, the price could fall even lower. On the other hand, assuming Bitcoin’s turn toward the upside, it might hit the $62,923 resistance range. In a highly bullish context, the potent bulls would trigger the asset to climb to its recent highs.  

Crypto Market Highlights

AAVE Rebounds 7%: Will Buyers Push Through Key Resistance or Lose Steam?

The post Bitcoin (BTC) at a Crossroads: Make-or-Break Levels to Watch as Its Dominance Shakes Up the Market appeared first on Risk Front Digest.

Brent and the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil benchmarks jumped on Monday, reaching their highest levels since June 12 as the crisis in the Middle East escalated.

Even so, Professor John Mearsheimer has warned that this rally could accelerate in the near term.

John Mearsheimer warns on crude oil prices

Mearsheimer, a distinguished professor from the University of Chicago, has warned that crude oil prices could surge in the coming days or weeks unless President Donald Trump ends his escalation. 

In an interview with Chris Hedges, Mearsheimer cited several reasons why the crisis will move from bad to worse, especially if President Donald Trump ramps up his attacks against Iranian infrastructure this week.

He believes that Iran is in a better place in terms of the escalation ladder, as it has more areas left to target.

For one, if the US attacks Iranian oil and gas infrastructure, Iran can reciprocate and hit similar projects in the region. Such a move would mean that the energy sector will take a long time to recover, even when the war ends.

At the same time, Iran has already shut the Strait of Hormuz, where 20% of the world’s oil flows through.

If the situation escalates, it can hit and fully halt operations in Fujairah, where the United Arab Emirates is selling over 1.5 million barrels of oil per day.

Most importantly, Iran, by teaming up with Ansah Allah, can close the Bab al-Mandab.

This would be a major move as Saudi Arabia is selling over 9 million barrels of oil per day through this route. Such a move would remove millions of barrels of oil from coming to the market.

Mearsheimer believes that Trump’s goal of pushing Iran into a deal will fail. He noted that hardliners who opposed the MoU have been proven right and that they will oppose any negotiations with the US.

They may also seek to prolong the war, potentially through the midterms.

Oil inventories are slumping

This situation would happen at a time when oil inventories have plunged. In a recent note, Energy Aspect’s Amrita Sen explained that the world’s oil inventories, excluding the Strategic Petroleum Reserves, stood at over 400 million barrels before the start of the war. 

Most of this oil is now gone, a point that Trump noted when he announced the Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) with Iran. She also warned that demand would jump if China was to restart its oil buying frenzy.

A report by the Energy Information Administration (EIA) noted that US oil inventories dropped by 1.7 million barrels in the previous week. 

WTI crude oil price technical analysis

WTI oil price chart | Source: TradingView

The daily chart shows that WTI has made a strong rebound in the past few days, moving from $67.21 in July to the current $83.63. It has already jumped above the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA).

At the same time, the Average Directional Index (ADX) has jumped to 24, a sign that the trend is strengthening. Therefore, the path of the least resistance is upwards unless President Trump and the Iranians de-escalates.

The post Top professor explains why WTI crude oil price could surge soon appeared first on Invezz

The post Top professor explains why WTI crude oil price could surge soon appeared first on Risk Front Digest.

• Bitcoin price is currently holding at the $64.8K mark.
• Past bear markets project a potential BTC cycle low near $38K–$39K.

The largest and dominant asset, Bitcoin (BTC), is currently trading at $64,878, ranging between a daily low of $64,361 and a high of $65,507. Besides, with $26.90 billion in trading volume. NYDIG has flagged that Bitcoin’s current 2025–2026 drawdown is starting to look a lot like the bear market corrections of 2014, 2018, and 2022, all four-year cycle lows that hit hard before the next leg up. 

Also, BTC is already down nearly 50% from its October 2025 all-time high of $126,000. In addition, if this cycle follows the depth and duration of previous bear markets, NYDIG puts the potential cycle low near the $38,000–$39,000 mark later this year. That would likely be another 40% drop from current levels.

At $64K, the momentum is flat. Moreover, until the buyers show up with real force at these levels, the path of least resistance remains down. As per the recent trading pattern, the Bitcoin momentum is attempting a recovery. 

If it succeeds, it could immediately test the near-term resistance level at $64,973. Upon climbing higher, the pressure on the upside strengthens, and it might initiate the golden cross to take place. Gradually, the bulls would drive the asset’s price toward a high above the $65.1K range. 

On the other hand, assuming the Bitcoin momentum shifts downward, the bears gain traction, and the price could instantly slip to the key support zone at around $64,706. The death cross could emerge with the intense bearish correction, with the price retracing toward $64.5K or even lower. 

Bitcoin Technical Analysis: Can it Rebound and Confirm a Trend Reversal?

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) line crossing and holding above the signal line indicates that the short-term buying pressure is aggressively speeding up. As both lines are floating above the zero midline, it’s evident that the dominant, long-term trend is firmly positive.

Also, this BTC setup signals a fully confirmed bull market, with a strong buy-and-hold signal. The upward move has a powerful structural backing, and an immediate trend reversal is highly unlikely. 

Furthermore, Bitcoin’s daily Relative Strength Index (RSI) is found at 58.92, suggesting moderate bullish momentum. The value being above the 50-midline shows buyers are driving the immediate trend.

This level hints that the asset is not yet overbought, and the momentum has enough breathing room ahead before hitting a cooling-off zone. The price has solid underlying strength to continue climbing without an immediate threat of momentum fatigue.

Crypto Market Highlights

Zcash (ZEC) Explodes Higher: Can Buyers Keep the 12% Rally Alive Beyond Resistance?

The post Has Bitcoin (BTC) Found Its Bear Market Floor? History Points to $38K–$39K  appeared first on Risk Front Digest.

The FTSE 100 Index has held steady in the past few days, reaching its highest point since July 8. It has jumped by nearly 10% from its lowest point in March this year. This article highlights some of the top catalysts for the Footsie Index this week.

FTSE 100 Index to react to US-Iran war

One key catalyst for the Footsie Index this week will be the ongoing US-Iran crisis, which has continued to escalate. Tens of people have been killed in Iran, while two US service members died in Jordan. 

Worse, there are concerns that this is becoming a new forever war as talks have failed to generate any meaningful results. As a result, there is a likelihood that energy prices will continue rising as the Strait of Hormuz closure continues.

FTSE 100 Index constituents react differently to the US-Iran war. For one, IAG and Rolls-Royce stocks will likely come under pressure as Iran has warned that it will hit key airports in the region if the US continues targeting its critical infrastructure.

On the other hand, energy companies like Shell and BPwill likely continue bouncing back as oil prices soar. Shell has jumped by 13% from its lowest point this month, while BP has soared by 15%.

UK inflation, jobs, and retail sales data

The FTSE 100 Index will also react to some important macro data from the UK this week. These are important numbers because they will provide more hints on what the Bank of England (BoE) will do.

Economists expect the upcoming numbers to show that the unemployment rate remained at 4.9% in May. With energy prices falling in June, the expectation is that the headline CPI dropped from 2.8% in May to 2.7% YoY in June. The core CPI is also expected to drop from 2.6% to 2.5% YoY.

While this retreat will be encouraging, the main risk is that the US-Iran war has resumed and energy prices are starting to climb. If the war continues for a while, there is a risk that inflation will remain stubbornly above the 2% target.

The UK will also publish the latest retail sales numbers on Friday. These numbers come at a time when odds of a Bank of England rate hike have risen to 38% on Polymarket.

Andy Burnham becomes UK Prime Minister

The other key driver for the FTSE 100 Index this week is political as Andy Burnham is set to become the new Prime Minister on Monday. He has already become the new Labour Party leader.

There are hints that Burnham will appoint Shabana Mahmood to be the next Chancellor. Shabana is widely seen as being a more market-friendly leader than Ed Miliband, who was also under consideration.

Traders will focus on more announcements from the new prime minister on how to boost the economic growth and the financial market.

US and UK earnings season

Finally, the FTSE 100 Index will also react to the continuing US and UK earnings season. Hundreds of US companies will publish their numbers, with the most notable ones being Tesla, Google, Charles Schwab, Chubb, GM, and GE Vernova. Historically, US earnings tend to have an important impact on UK equities.

In the UK, BT Group, a major telecom company, will publish its financial results, showing how its turnaround is continuing. Compass Group, a top company in the food services industry will also release its numbers. 

The post Top 4 catalysts for the FTSE 100 Index this week appeared first on Invezz

The post Top 4 catalysts for the FTSE 100 Index this week appeared first on Risk Front Digest.